“I’m not quoting numbers from the Rubio-Crist race until I see Rubio has won and the results are certified in blood.” – Melissa Clouthier
I agree with Melissa sentiments, and this race is too important to get lazy and/or cocky on. That said…
The conventional wisdom with Florida Senate polls, at least the CW that we Marco Rubio supporters clung too, was that a) Charlie Crist’s lead was inflated by the BP Gulf crisis, and b) a Kendrick Meeks victory would cause the Democrats who were flirting with Crist to come home to the fold and back Meeks.
Florida voters go to the polls today, and all indications are Meeks winning the Democrat primary in a blowout. Rubio already has the Republican nomination. Crist? I give you Public Policy Polling…
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Democrats will get their stronger candidate if Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) wins the Florida U.S. Senate primary tonight as expected, but the biggest winner coming out of the primary may be Marco Rubio (R).
Rubio leads a general election match up with 40%, followed by Gov. Charlie Crist (I) at 32%, and Meek at 17%. If Jeff Greene (D) were somehow able to pull off the upset tonight it would be much closer with Rubio at 37%, Crist at 36%, and Greene at only 13%.
Here comes the money…
Key point: “Crist’s support continues to show an awkward balance that may ultimately make victory for him impossible. 57% of those planning to vote for him if Meek is the nominee think he should caucus with the Democrats in the Senate if elected while 28% think he should side with the Republicans. He’s more likely to find the additional support he needs to get elected from Democrats than Republicans, but can he do that without losing the 20% of Republicans who are still with him?”
While there was a recent Quinnipiac poll that had Crist up by five, the reliable Mason-Dixon, right leaning Rasmussen, and now left leaning PPP all have Rubio up somewhere between six to eight points.
A lot can happen in the next few months, and like I said, this race is way too important to get lazy. But Rubio supporters can at least exhale, if just for today.